What proportion of wind power PV in global power generation in 2040? IEA said 16%; BNEF said 34%

According to the data of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), in 2016, the global electricity installed capacity was 6719 GW, of which coal accounted for 30%, followed by natural gas power generation (24%), hydropower (17%), onshore wind power (7%), fuel oil (6%), photovoltaic (5%) and nuclear power (5%). It can be seen that the proportion of fossil energy power generation capacity reached 60% in 2016.

BNEF predicts that the global installed capacity of electricity will reach 13919 gigawatts in 2040, and the proportion of installed capacity of photovoltaic power will reach 32% (22% of public utility photovoltaic power stations, 10% of small photovoltaic systems), followed by onshore wind power (14%), natural gas power (14%), coal power (13%), hydropower (12%), and nuclear power (2%). In this way, the installed proportion of wind power photovoltaic will reach 46% by 2040. However, due to the low capacity factor (annual power generation hours), BNEF expects that the proportion of wind power photovoltaic power generation will be 34%.

However, the forecasts of other institutions are much lower than those of BNEF. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that the proportion of wind power PV in total power generation in 2040 is about 16%, and only 2.9% in primary energy consumption.